This is the first in what I hope will be a series of blog posts. Today, I want to talk about how to take everything you’ve learned from the market so far and use it to get a better sense of what might happen next. Of course, no matter how much you try, there’s always going to be some things you just can’t predict.

"Reality looks much more obvious in hindsight than in foresight. People who experience hindsight bias misapply current hindsight to past foresight." They perceive events that occurred to have been more predictable before the fact than was actually the case.

—HERSH SHEFRIN, Finance and the Psychology of Investing

We take Hersh Shefrin’s advice to heart and try not to fall into the trap of Monday morning quarterbacking.

What we learn from our experience we incorporate into our tools. All our applications are in the process of constant improvement. The lessons we learn from our own experience are baked right into our tools, which are always evolving and improving. We don’t just blindly apply whatever hindsight we gain; there’s no one-size-fits-all solution, and every market situation is unique.

Many factors influence the market, and we increasingly rely on data analysis to navigate its complexities. However, we remind ourselves that data mining is merely a starting point, not the definitive answer. A significant part of our work involves filtering out noise to identify genuine signals and conducting thorough data cleansing. We also analyze SEC filings and economic data.

Will this eliminate all mistakes? Probably not. But it does help us move away from mere guessing and brings us closer to achieving foresight that is as accurate as hindsight. And yes, AI plays a role in this process, though that’s a topic for another blog post.

There’s a good chance some of our code will be open-sourced. Stay tuned for more on that!

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